Boavista 4-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Boavista at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Boavista welcome Chaves to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 September 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Boavista — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boavista's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Chaves have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Boavista carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Boavista, 0 for Chaves and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 4–1 with Boavista winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Boavista trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Chaves trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 66% versus Chaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 60% | Chaves 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 2.10 xG and Chaves 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 1.094 / defence 0.982 | Chaves attack 0.725 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.215. Chaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Boavista's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Boavista games / 38 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 66% | Draw 20% | Chaves 14%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Chaves 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Boavista (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boavista at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 70% | Chaves 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 66% | Draw 20% | Chaves 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Boavista 2.10 / Chaves 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 1.094 / def 0.982 | Chaves attack 0.725 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Boavista (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Chaves xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Chaves kick off?
Boavista vs Chaves kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 18 September 2023 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Chaves?
Boavista 4 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Boavista vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Chaves part of?
Boavista vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 66% chance of winning, Chaves a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Boavista and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Chaves?
Record (2 meetings): Boavista 1W | Draws 1 | Chaves 0W.
What form are Boavista and Chaves in?
Boavista (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Chaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boavista's attack at 1.09x the league average against Chaves's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.07
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.97
0.86
Chaves xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
2%
57.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Boavista and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Boavista and 0.86 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boavista's recent record stands at 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boavista on 1.42 PPG, Chaves on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 9W 7D 3L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boavista are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Early Season
Chaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Chaves in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Chaves have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Chaves away?
Boavista's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.79 PPG; Chaves away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boavista and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when Boavista won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Boavista's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Boavista
1
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Boavista have won 2, Chaves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Chaves 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Chaves?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 68%, Chaves 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Boavista) and 37% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Chaves in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Boavista's recent matches and 37% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Boavista's recent games and 37% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Chaves tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Chaves in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Boavista run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Chaves 4-1 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 2.10 xG and Chaves 0.86 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Boavista beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Chaves attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 66% | Draw 20% | Chaves 14%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 60%, Chaves 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.42 PPG, Chaves 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.