Benfica 1-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Benfica at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs Sporting CP fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Sporting CP at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sporting CP stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Sporting CP have posted 4W 1D 0L from 5 away outings — 2.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.50 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.60 (Sporting CP). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sporting CP in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Sporting CP in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 50% versus Sporting CP 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 58% | Sporting CP 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.45 xG and Sporting CP 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.452 / defence 1.033 | Sporting CP attack 0.956 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.341. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Benfica games / 12 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 37% | Draw 33% | Sporting CP 31%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Sporting CP 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Sporting CP 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 37% | Draw 33% | Sporting CP 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Benfica 1.45 / Sporting CP 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.452 / def 1.033 | Sporting CP attack 0.956 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Benfica (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sporting CP xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Sporting CP kick off?
Benfica vs Sporting CP kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Benfica 1 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is Benfica vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Sporting CP part of?
Benfica vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 37% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Benfica and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Sporting CP?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and Sporting CP in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.08
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.78
1.32
Sporting CP xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Benfica and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Benfica and 1.32 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica's recent record stands at 10W 1D 1L from 12 games, a 2.58 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 10W 2D 0L across 12 games — 2.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benfica on 2.58 PPG, Sporting CP on 2.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 4W 1D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 1.58 scored and 0.33 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Sporting CP's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Sporting CP in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 10W 1D 1L in their last 12 games (2.58 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 10W 2D 0L in their last 12 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.40 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Benfica or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Sporting CP runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Benfica
4
Draws
3
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, Sporting CP have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sporting CP see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 60%, Sporting CP 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Benfica) and 40% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Benfica's games and 60% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Benfica's recent games and 40% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Benfica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Benfica 1-3 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.45 xG and Sporting CP 1.32 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.45 / defence 1.03 against Sporting CP attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 37% | Draw 33% | Sporting CP 31%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sporting CP win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, Sporting CP 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benfica 2.58 PPG, Sporting CP 2.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sporting CP win broke the near-deadlock. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.