Benfica 0-1 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Benfica take on Portimonense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Portimonense travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 7W 0D 0L from 7 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.71 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Primeira Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portimonense stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Primeira Liga matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.57 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portimonense's away record: 2W 1D 0L from 3 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.57 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.43 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.57. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Portimonense in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 57% versus Portimonense 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 71% | Portimonense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.12 xG and Portimonense 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.225 / defence 1.040 | Portimonense attack 0.994 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.180. Data: 7 Benfica games / 7 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 29% | Draw 36% | Portimonense 35%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Portimonense 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 67% | Portimonense 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 29% | Draw 36% | Portimonense 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Benfica 1.12 / Portimonense 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.225 / def 1.040 | Portimonense attack 0.994 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Portimonense xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Portimonense kick off?
Benfica vs Portimonense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Portimonense?
Benfica 0 - 1 Portimonense.
Where is Benfica vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Portimonense part of?
Benfica vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 29% chance of winning, Portimonense a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benfica and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Portimonense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and Portimonense in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-0D-0L in 7 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.71 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Portimonense (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.23x the league average against Portimonense's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.39
36%
2.78
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.34
1.22
Portimonense xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Benfica and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Benfica and 1.22 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 7 games, going 7W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Portimonense sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.43 PPG clear of Portimonense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Portimonense have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.00 scored and 0.57 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Portimonense's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense in 29%.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Portimonense in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Portimonense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 7W 0D 0L in their last 7 games (3.00 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Portimonense away?
Benfica's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 3.00 PPG; Portimonense away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Benfica or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Portimonense in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Portimonense runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Portimonense specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Benfica
0
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Portimonense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Benfica 4-0 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Portimonense?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 67%, Portimonense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benfica) and 33% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Portimonense in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Benfica's recent matches and 33% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benfica's recent games and 33% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Portimonense tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Benfica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Benfica 0-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.12 xG and Portimonense 1.22 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Benfica fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.23 / defence 1.04 against Portimonense attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 29% | Draw 36% | Portimonense 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 71%, Portimonense 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Portimonense's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.57. Form was overturned, with Portimonense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.