Benfica 7-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Maritimo travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 4W 0D 2L from 6 Primeira Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Maritimo in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Maritimo trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benfica 57% and Maritimo 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 64% | Maritimo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.99 xG and Maritimo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.374 / defence 1.190 | Maritimo attack 0.733 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.363. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Benfica games / 14 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 54% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 21%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Maritimo 4.76. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 67% | Maritimo 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 54% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Benfica 1.99 / Maritimo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.374 / def 1.190 | Maritimo attack 0.733 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Benfica (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Maritimo xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Maritimo kick off?
Benfica vs Maritimo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Benfica 7 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Benfica vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Maritimo part of?
Benfica vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 54% chance of winning, Maritimo a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Benfica and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.37x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.00
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.17
1.19
Maritimo xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
14%
7.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
3%
34.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Benfica and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Benfica and 1.19 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.43 PPG on a 11W 1D 2L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L). That actually lags their 2.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Maritimo have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Maritimo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo in 64%.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 11W 1D 2L in their last 14 games (2.43 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Maritimo away?
Benfica's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.00 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Benfica or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Maritimo in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Maritimo?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 67%, Maritimo at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benfica) and 50% (Maritimo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Maritimo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benfica's games and 67% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Benfica's matches and 50% of Maritimo's.
Do Benfica and Maritimo tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Maritimo 7-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.99 xG and Maritimo 1.19 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.37 / defence 1.19 against Maritimo attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 54% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 21%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 64%, Maritimo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Maritimo (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.