Benfica 1-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Casa Pia encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Casa Pia travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Benfica — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Benfica have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Casa Pia have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Casa Pia away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Benfica are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Benfica, 0 for Casa Pia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Benfica 3–0 Casa Pia — a Benfica win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Benfica in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.

Casa Pia in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 36% versus Casa Pia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Casa Pia 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.49 xG and Casa Pia 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.253 / defence 0.661 | Casa Pia attack 0.865 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.268. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.253 — their 1.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Casa Pia bring a tight defence (rating 0.794, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Benfica's projected output down. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.661), which is pulling Casa Pia's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 42 games and Casa Pia's last 42.

Result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 18%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.80 | Draw 3.80 | Casa Pia 5.50. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Benfica 30% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 40% (last 10 away games).

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