AVS 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AVS vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Braga make the trip to Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves to face AVS in Primeira Liga (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AVS have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AVS's home record over their last 7 home games: 3W 2D 2L (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AVS are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SC Braga (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Braga are 1.00 PPG clear of AVS over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
AVS half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SC Braga half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 54% versus SC Braga 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 54% | SC Braga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 0.88 xG and SC Braga 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.738 / defence 1.392 | SC Braga attack 1.152 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.144. AVS's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. AVS's defence rating of 1.392 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Braga's projected output up. Data: built from AVS's last 11 games and SC Braga's last 45.
Result probabilities: AVS 18% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 60%. Fair-value odds: AVS 5.70 | Draw 4.45 | SC Braga 1.67. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AVS 43% (last 7 home games) | SC Braga 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AVS vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AVS 18% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG AVS 0.88 / SC Braga 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: AVS attack 0.738 / def 1.392 | SC Braga attack 1.152 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
AVS xG
Expected Goals
1.83
SC Braga xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AVS vs SC Braga FAQs
What time does AVS vs SC Braga kick off?
AVS vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What was the final score in AVS vs SC Braga?
AVS 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is AVS vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What competition is AVS vs SC Braga part of?
AVS vs SC Braga is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win AVS vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives AVS a 18% chance of winning, SC Braga a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in AVS vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AVS and SC Braga will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will AVS vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AVS's attack at 0.74x the league average against SC Braga's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Braga's attack (1.15x) against AVS's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from AVS's last 11 games and SC Braga's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
18%
5.70
22%
4.45
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
AVS xG
Total xG
2.71
1.83
SC Braga xG
5.70
18%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
3%
35.74
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AVS vs SC Braga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AVS vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are AVS and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for AVS and 1.83 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for AVS vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, AVS have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
SC Braga's form line: 7W 2D 4L from 13 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, SC Braga are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AVS.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AVS have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 6 home games (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, SC Braga have gone 4W 1D 1L from their last 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AVS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.69 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AVS
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
AVS (Home) vs SC Braga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AVS
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ AVS vs SC Braga Form FAQs
What form are AVS and SC Braga in coming into this match?
AVS have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AVS at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AVS at home: 1.33 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.17 PPG.
Have AVS or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
AVS have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Braga in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between AVS and SC Braga, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Braga won AVS 0-4 SC Braga on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AVS have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Braga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AVS
1
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ AVS vs SC Braga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and SC Braga?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AVS have won 0, SC Braga have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AVS and SC Braga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: AVS 0-4 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between AVS and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AVS see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AVS 33%, SC Braga 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AVS) and 67% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: AVS keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; SC Braga in 50%; AVS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AVS home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AVS vs SC Braga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AVS and SC Braga matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AVS's recent matches and 50% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AVS and SC Braga matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AVS's recent games and 67% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AVS and SC Braga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of AVS's recent matches and 67% of SC Braga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out AVS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat AVS 0-1 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.88 xG and SC Braga 1.83 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AVS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.74 / defence 1.39 against SC Braga attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AVS 18% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 60%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 54%, SC Braga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AVS's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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