Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 7 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.60 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 30% rate and Pogon Szczecin's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 3 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Pogon Szczecin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Pogon Szczecin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.891 / defence 0.924 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.923 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.918. Data: 40 Zaglebie Lubin games / 39 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Pogon Szczecin 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Pogon Szczecin 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 / Pogon Szczecin 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.891 / def 0.924 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.923 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Pogon Szczecin xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 39% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (4 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.89x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
39%
2.58
36%
2.76
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
1.82
0.78
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.78 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 9D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.69 PPG from 39 outings (19W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.38 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.54 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.21 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Pogon Szczecin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 58% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.78 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.