Wisla Krakow 0-5 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 2D 1L from 5 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slask Wroclaw — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Krakow in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 46% versus Slask Wroclaw 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 64% | Slask Wroclaw 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.37 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.901 / defence 1.077 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.891 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.202. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Wisla Krakow games / 11 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 42% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Slask Wroclaw 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slask Wroclaw (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 40% | Slask Wroclaw 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 42% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.37 / Slask Wroclaw 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.901 / def 1.077 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.891 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Wisla Krakow 0 - 5 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 42% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.75
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.52
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.15 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Krakow come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 2D 5L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Krakow on 1.27 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Krakow's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.40 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 40%, Slask Wroclaw 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Wisla Krakow and 60% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Wisla Krakow's games and 80% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 60% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slask Wroclaw run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Wisla Krakow 0-5 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.37 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Wisla Krakow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 1.15 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 42% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 32%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 64%, Slask Wroclaw 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Krakow 1.27 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.