Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.20 for Jagiellonia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Jagiellonia, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Widzew Łódź winning.
It is worth noting that Jagiellonia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 54% versus Jagiellonia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Jagiellonia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.21 xG and Jagiellonia 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / defence 0.984 | Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Widzew Łódź games / 43 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 27% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 41%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Jagiellonia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Jagiellonia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 27% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.21 / Jagiellonia 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / def 0.984 | Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Jagiellonia xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 27% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Record (9 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 6W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.79) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.16x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
27%
3.72
33%
3.08
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.73
1.52
Jagiellonia xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.95
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.52 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 12W 13D 19L from 44 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 14L across 44 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 8W 8D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.57 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Jagiellonia away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.45 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 59%, Jagiellonia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Widzew Łódź) and 54% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Widzew Łódź's games and 59% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 54% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.