Warta Poznań 3-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Warta Poznań at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to take on Warta Poznań. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Warta Poznań — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Warta Poznań at 1.30 PPG versus Slask Wroclaw's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 36% versus Slask Wroclaw 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 30% | Slask Wroclaw 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.27 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 1.053 / defence 0.885 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.850 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.018. Data: 61 Warta Poznań games / 61 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 46% | Draw 33% | Slask Wroclaw 20%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Slask Wroclaw 5.00. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 50% | Slask Wroclaw 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 46% | Draw 33% | Slask Wroclaw 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Warta Poznań 1.27 / Slask Wroclaw 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 1.053 / def 0.885 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.850 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Slask Wroclaw xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Warta Poznań 3 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 46% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (3 meetings): Warta Poznań 2W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (1.05) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
46%
2.16
33%
3.00
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.03
0.77
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 0.77 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 17D 23L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 14W 24D 23L from 61 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.31 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (7W 12D 11L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 10D 13L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 14W 24D 23L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.10 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slask Wroclaw have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 53%, Slask Wroclaw 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Warta Poznań) and 40% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 37% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Warta Poznań's games and 60% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 40% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Slask Wroclaw 3-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.27 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.77 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Warta Poznań beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 46% | Draw 33% | Slask Wroclaw 20%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 30%, Slask Wroclaw 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.31 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.