Stal Mielec 3-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 31 as Stal Mielec welcome Jagiellonia to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jagiellonia's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jagiellonia are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stal Mielec, 2 for Jagiellonia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 42% versus Jagiellonia 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 41% | Jagiellonia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.12 xG and Jagiellonia 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.784 / defence 0.887 | Jagiellonia attack 1.304 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.154. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Stal Mielec games / 64 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 30% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 40%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 50% | Jagiellonia 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 30% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Stal Mielec 1.12 / Jagiellonia 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.784 / def 0.887 | Jagiellonia attack 1.304 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Stal Mielec 3 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia part of?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 30% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Record (5 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.78x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
30%
3.38
30%
3.30
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.45
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.83
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.33 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 18D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.52 PPG from 64 outings (25W 22D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.27 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stal Mielec's home form reads 13W 12D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (7W 15D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.81 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 72%.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 25W 22D 17L in their last 64 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Jagiellonia away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.59 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2022, when Jagiellonia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 44%, Jagiellonia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stal Mielec) and 56% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Stal Mielec's games and 75% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 56% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Jagiellonia 3-2 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.12 xG and Jagiellonia 1.33 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.78 / defence 0.89 against Jagiellonia attack 1.30 / defence 0.95, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 30% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 40%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 41%, Jagiellonia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.27 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.