Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Gornik Zabrze at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stal Mielec — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Gornik Zabrze's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 4 for Gornik Zabrze and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 58% versus Gornik Zabrze 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 53% | Gornik Zabrze 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.39 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.870 / defence 1.157 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.955 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.228. Data: 62 Stal Mielec games / 62 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 36%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Gornik Zabrze 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 70% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Stal Mielec 1.39 / Gornik Zabrze 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.870 / def 1.157 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.955 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Gornik Zabrze xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Stal Mielec 0 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 38% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (7 meetings): Stal Mielec 2W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 4W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.91
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.75
1.36
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.36 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 16D 29L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 27W 12D 23L from 62 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stal Mielec.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 11W 5D 15L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.35 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 17W 16D 29L in their last 62 games (1.08 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 27W 12D 23L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.58 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 55%, Gornik Zabrze 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stal Mielec) and 58% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Stal Mielec's games and 61% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 58% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stal Mielec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.39 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.36 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 36%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 53%, Gornik Zabrze 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.