Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to Tarczyński Arena to face Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tarczyński Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Wisla Plock have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 0.90 for Wisla Plock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Slask Wroclaw have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Wisla Plock managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slask Wroclaw and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 60% versus Wisla Plock 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 43% | Wisla Plock 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG and Wisla Plock 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.769 / defence 1.088 | Wisla Plock attack 0.819 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.007. Slask Wroclaw's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Slask Wroclaw games / 65 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 42% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 26%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Wisla Plock 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Wisla Plock 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 42% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.20 / Wisla Plock 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.769 / def 1.088 | Wisla Plock attack 0.819 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Wisla Plock xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Slask Wroclaw 3 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 42% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock?
Record (3 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 3W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.77) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.82x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.13
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.10
0.90
Wisla Plock xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.90 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 65 games, going 14W 25D 26L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.31 PPG from 65 outings (25W 10D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.31 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 7W 14D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.69 points per game from 32 outings (6W 4D 22L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.34 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Wisla Plock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 14W 25D 26L in their last 65 games (1.03 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 25W 10D 30L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Wisla Plock away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.09 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slask Wroclaw have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Slask Wroclaw
0
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 59%, Wisla Plock 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Slask Wroclaw) and 59% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 38% of games; Wisla Plock in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 62% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 59% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Wisla Plock 3-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG and Wisla Plock 0.90 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Wisla Plock attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 42% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 26%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 43%, Wisla Plock 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.03 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.