Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 0.90 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Radomiak Radom have managed just 2 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 60% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 52% | Radomiak Radom 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.80 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.991 / defence 1.334 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.714 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 39 Raków Częstochowa games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Radomiak Radom 50%.

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