Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice meet at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 8D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Piast Gliwice managing 1 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2023, ended Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Piast Gliwice — a Piast Gliwice win.
The head-to-head data gives Raków Częstochowa an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 47% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Raków Częstochowa 51% | Piast Gliwice 28%). Note also that Piast Gliwice surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Raków Częstochowa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.156 / defence 0.747 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.896 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.243. Raków Częstochowa have a tight defence (rating 0.747), which is pulling Piast Gliwice's projected output down. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 53 games and Piast Gliwice's last 53.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 47% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 23%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.11 | Draw 3.35 | Piast Gliwice 4.39. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Raków Częstochowa 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 30% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 47% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.32 / Piast Gliwice 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.156 / def 0.747 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.896 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Piast Gliwice xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 47% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.90x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 53 games and Piast Gliwice's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.35
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.15
0.83
Piast Gliwice xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.83 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 32W 11D 10L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 18W 20D 15L from 53 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.52 PPG from their last 27 home games (21W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 12D 6L from their last 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.06 scored and 0.92 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's scoring rate against Piast Gliwice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 32W 11D 10L in their last 53 games (2.02 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 20D 15L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.52 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won Piast Gliwice 0-3 Raków Częstochowa on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 33%, Piast Gliwice 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Raków Częstochowa and 15% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 37%; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 41% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 15% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 63% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 3-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 0.75 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 47% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 23%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 51%, Piast Gliwice 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.