Raków Częstochowa 4-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 11 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 2.10 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Legia Warszawa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Raków Częstochowa lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Legia Warszawa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 56% | Legia Warszawa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.180 / defence 0.889 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.966 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.181. Data: 41 Raków Częstochowa games / 42 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Legia Warszawa 4.00. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Legia Warszawa 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.53 / Legia Warszawa 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.180 / def 0.889 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.966 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Legia Warszawa xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa 4 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 49% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.18x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.97x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.89
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.54
1.01
Legia Warszawa xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
5%
18.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.01 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 24W 10D 7L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 17W 6D 18L from 41 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (13W 7D 1L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 5D 11L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.37 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 6D 18L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.19 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
4
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 52%, Legia Warszawa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Raków Częstochowa) and 48% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 57% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 48% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Legia Warszawa 4-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.01 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 56%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.