Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 31 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Raków Częstochowa, 2 for Jagiellonia and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Jagiellonia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.103 / defence 0.794 | Jagiellonia attack 1.088 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.091. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Raków Częstochowa games / 65 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Jagiellonia 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Jagiellonia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.32 / Jagiellonia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.103 / def 0.794 | Jagiellonia attack 1.088 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
Record (8 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 4W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.10x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.12
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Jagiellonia xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.94 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 34W 16D 15L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Jagiellonia's form line: 30W 20D 15L from 65 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.82 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (17W 7D 8L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 13W 11D 8L from 32 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.65 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 34W 16D 15L in their last 65 games (1.82 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 30W 20D 15L in their last 65 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.81 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Jagiellonia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Raków Częstochowa) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 59% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Raków Częstochowa 0-2 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against Jagiellonia attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Jagiellonia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.82 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.