Raków Częstochowa 1-0 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates GKS Katowice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host GKS Katowice at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's home record at zondacrypto Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at zondacrypto Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GKS Katowice stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GKS Katowice's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 2.00 PPG versus GKS Katowice's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for GKS Katowice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
GKS Katowice trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus GKS Katowice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 44% | GKS Katowice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.57 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.906 / defence 1.098 | GKS Katowice attack 1.196 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.209. Data: 50 Raków Częstochowa games / 50 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 37%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | GKS Katowice 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GKS Katowice at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | GKS Katowice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.57 / GKS Katowice 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.906 / def 1.098 | GKS Katowice attack 1.196 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 GKS Katowice.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
Record (3 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 0 | GKS Katowice 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. GKS Katowice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (0.91) and GKS Katowice's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.67
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.16
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.59 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 28W 11D 11L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GKS Katowice's form line: 20W 9D 21L from 50 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GKS Katowice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (12W 5D 7L).
On the road, GKS Katowice have gone 8W 3D 13L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.44 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 28W 11D 11L in their last 50 games (1.90 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 20W 9D 21L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or GKS Katowice away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.71 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
1
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
From 4 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, GKS Katowice have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Raków Częstochowa 1-0 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 58%, GKS Katowice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Raków Częstochowa) and 62% (GKS Katowice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 46% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 62% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat GKS Katowice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat GKS Katowice 1-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.57 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GKS Katowice landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against GKS Katowice attack 1.20 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 36% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 37%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 44%, GKS Katowice 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.