Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis

📋

Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Wisla Krakow make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Wisla Krakow have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Wisla Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wisla Krakow are 0.57 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.67 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Wisla Krakow in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 4–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Wisla Krakow 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Radomiak Radom 83% | Wisla Krakow 83%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.92 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.939 / defence 1.010 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.046 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 6 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 27% | Wisla Krakow 25%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Krakow 4.00. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Krakow (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights