Radomiak Radom 2-3 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 31 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Warta Poznań (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Warta Poznań have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Radomiak Radom lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with Warta Poznań winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 50% versus Warta Poznań 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 38% | Warta Poznań 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.83 xG and Warta Poznań 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.999 / defence 1.062 | Warta Poznań attack 0.926 / defence 0.645. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.198. Warta Poznań's defence strength of 0.645 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Radomiak Radom games / 48 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 25% | Draw 32% | Warta Poznań 43%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Warta Poznań 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 40% | Warta Poznań 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 25% | Draw 32% | Warta Poznań 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.83 / Warta Poznań 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.999 / def 1.062 | Warta Poznań attack 0.926 / def 0.645 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Warta Poznań xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 31 October 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 3 Warta Poznań.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 25% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.93x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
25%
3.99
32%
3.16
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.00
1.18
Warta Poznań xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.9 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 17W 17D 14L from 48 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 20L across 48 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.25 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 10W 8D 6L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.98 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 17D 14L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Warta Poznań away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.58 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 58%, Warta Poznań 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Radomiak Radom and 25% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 46%; Warta Poznań in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 17% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 25% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Warta Poznań edge out Radomiak Radom 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Radomiak Radom 2-3 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.83 xG and Warta Poznań 1.18 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Warta Poznań attack 0.93 / defence 0.65, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 25% | Draw 32% | Warta Poznań 43%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Warta Poznań 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.42 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.