Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 3D 1L from 6 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 3W 4D 0L from 7 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.86 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 1D 0L from 3 away outings — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.50 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.86 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 50% versus Slask Wroclaw 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 33% | Slask Wroclaw 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.22 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.038 / defence 1.017 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.050 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.123. Data: 6 Radomiak Radom games / 7 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 34%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 67% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.22 / Slask Wroclaw 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.038 / def 1.017 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.050 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 35% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-4D-0L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.04x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.18
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.42
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.20 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 3D 1L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slask Wroclaw are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.33 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 67%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 67% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 8, as Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.22 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 34%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 33%, Slask Wroclaw 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.