Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Radomiak Radom face Jagiellonia.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Radomiak Radom have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at , Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Jagiellonia (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Jagiellonia's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Jagiellonia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Jagiellonia hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jagiellonia have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Jagiellonia 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.41 xG and Jagiellonia 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / defence 1.012 | Jagiellonia attack 1.364 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Radomiak Radom games / 39 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 28% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 43%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.

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