Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 1W 1D 3L across 5 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ŁKS Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. ŁKS Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, ŁKS Łódź have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.20 for ŁKS Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 60% versus ŁKS Łódź 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | ŁKS Łódź 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.44 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.820 / defence 1.035 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.579 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 0.917. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Puszcza Niepołomice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 5 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 59% | Draw 27% | ŁKS Łódź 14%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | ŁKS Łódź 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Puszcza Niepołomice (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — ŁKS Łódź's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 60% | ŁKS Łódź 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 59% | Draw 27% | ŁKS Łódź 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 32% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.44 / ŁKS Łódź 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.820 / def 1.035 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.579 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.386 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
0.55
ŁKS Łódź xG
32%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Puszcza Niepołomice 2 - 1 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 59% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 0.82x the league average against ŁKS Łódź's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.58x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 2-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.73
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
1.99
0.55
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
3%
29.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0.55 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, ŁKS Łódź sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.20 for ŁKS Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; ŁKS Łódź in 20%.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
1
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 60%, ŁKS Łódź 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 40% (ŁKS Łódź).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 20% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 40% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Puszcza Niepołomice edge out ŁKS Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat ŁKS Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.44 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.55 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.58 / defence 1.27, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 59% | Draw 27% | ŁKS Łódź 14%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 40%, ŁKS Łódź 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 0.80 PPG, ŁKS Łódź 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.