Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 7 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 1.50 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 64% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 54% | Zaglebie Lubin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.34 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.247 / defence 0.974 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.929 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.207. Data: 39 Pogon Szczecin games / 40 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.34 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.247 / def 0.974 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.929 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.25) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.68
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.43
1.09
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.09 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 39 games, going 21W 12D 6L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (13W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.18 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 21W 12D 6L in their last 39 games (1.92 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 7D 19L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.11 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 79%, Zaglebie Lubin 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Pogon Szczecin and 53% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 37%; Zaglebie Lubin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 37% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.34 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.09 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 54%, Zaglebie Lubin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.