Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 23 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Pogon Szczecin: 6 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Zaglebie Lubin, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Pogon Szczecin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Zaglebie Lubin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 49% | Zaglebie Lubin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.94 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.116 / defence 1.005 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.964 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Data: 45 Pogon Szczecin games / 46 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.35. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.94 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.116 / def 1.005 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.964 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 51% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 6W | Draws 2 | Zaglebie Lubin 2W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.12) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.80
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.21
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
3%
30.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.27 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 9D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.49 PPG from 45 outings (18W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.53 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 12W 5D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 16L in their last 45 games (1.53 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 13D 14L in their last 45 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.86 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 64%, Zaglebie Lubin 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pogon Szczecin) and 54% (Zaglebie Lubin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.