Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pogon Szczecin face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pogon Szczecin welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Pogon Szczecin at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 1.10 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 2 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 42% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 48% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.64 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.046 / defence 0.883 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.876 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.169. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 52 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 52.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.86 | Draw 3.79 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.03. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.64 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.046 / def 0.883 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.876 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 19) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 54% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.05) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 52 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.79
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.54
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
4%
25.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.90 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 52 games, going 24W 10D 18L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.27 PPG from 52 outings (18W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.58 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 16W 3D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.13 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 10D 18L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.96 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 46%, Zaglebie Lubin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pogon Szczecin) and 46% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 46% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 92% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.64 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.58 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.