Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Piast Gliwice away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 1.80 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Pogon Szczecin: 5 wins from 10 H2H matches against 2 for Piast Gliwice, with 3 draws.
The 10 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2026, ended Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Piast Gliwice — a Pogon Szczecin win.
The head-to-head data gives Pogon Szczecin an edge — 5 wins from 10 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 55% versus Piast Gliwice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 51% | Piast Gliwice 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.48 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.122 / defence 1.000 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.908 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 47 games and Piast Gliwice's last 48.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 28%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.37 | Draw 3.38 | Piast Gliwice 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Pogon Szczecin 5 wins from 10 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 10 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 60% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.48 / Piast Gliwice 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.122 / def 1.000 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.908 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Piast Gliwice xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 47 games and Piast Gliwice's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.38
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.67
1.19
Piast Gliwice xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.19 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 20W 9D 18L from 47 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 18L across 47 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.47 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 13W 5D 6L from their last 24 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.40 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 12D 18L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.83 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 62%, Piast Gliwice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Pogon Szczecin) and 54% (Piast Gliwice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 58% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 54% of Piast Gliwice's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 62% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.