Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 31 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 2.10 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 62% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.36 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.211 / defence 1.292 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.121 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.011. Data: 64 Pogon Szczecin games / 64 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 38%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Legia Warszawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.36 / Legia Warszawa 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.211 / def 1.292 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.121 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Legia Warszawa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 34% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.21) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.58
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.83
1.46
Legia Warszawa xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.46 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 64 games, going 32W 20D 12L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.61 PPG from 64 outings (30W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.81 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 18W 7D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.23 points per game from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.47 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 32W 20D 12L in their last 64 games (1.81 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 30W 13D 21L in their last 64 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.97 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Legia Warszawa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 71%, Legia Warszawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Pogon Szczecin) and 45% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 48% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 45% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Legia Warszawa 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.36 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.46 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 1.29 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 38%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.81 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.