Pogon Szczecin 5-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 0L across 7 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 3W 4D 1L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.62 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 2.20 (Lechia Gdansk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 53% versus Lechia Gdansk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pogon Szczecin 27% | Lechia Gdansk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.79 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.358 / defence 0.965 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.181 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.221. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Pogon Szczecin games / 15 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 30%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Lechia Gdansk 3.33. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 71% | Lechia Gdansk 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.79 / Lechia Gdansk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.358 / def 0.965 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.181 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lechia Gdansk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin 5 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 47% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.27
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.18
1.39
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.39 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 8W 5D 2L from 15 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 1L across 15 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.93 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 6W 1D 0L from 7 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.87 scored and 0.93 conceded. Lechia Gdansk's attacking output running into Pogon Szczecin's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 games (1.93 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 8W 6D 1L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.71 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 71%, Lechia Gdansk 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Pogon Szczecin) and 43% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 43% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 43% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Lechia Gdansk 5-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.79 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.39 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 30%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 27%, Lechia Gdansk 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.93 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.