Piast Gliwice 0-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 23 as Piast Gliwice welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gornik Zabrze — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Piast Gliwice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gornik Zabrze in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 0 for Gornik Zabrze and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 50% versus Gornik Zabrze 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 36% | Gornik Zabrze 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.16 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.913 / defence 1.350 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.031 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.143. Data: 22 Piast Gliwice games / 22 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 47%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Gornik Zabrze 2.13. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 60% | Gornik Zabrze 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.16 / Gornik Zabrze 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.913 / def 1.350 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.031 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Gornik Zabrze xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 27% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (1 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.91) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
27%
3.65
26%
3.91
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.75
1.59
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
6%
17.92
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.59 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 8W 5D 9L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.32 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.41 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.40 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Piast Gliwice at 60%, Gornik Zabrze at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Piast Gliwice) and 70% (Gornik Zabrze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Piast Gliwice's games and 80% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 70% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 23, as Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.16 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.59 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 47%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 36%, Gornik Zabrze 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.32 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.