Motor Lublin 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Motor Lublin at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Arena Lublin to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Monday 2 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Motor Lublin (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Motor Lublin's home record over their last 8 home games: 3W 2D 3L (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Motor Lublin. A 0.50 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Trading

Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 56% versus Radomiak Radom 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 50% | Radomiak Radom 62%). Note also that Radomiak Radom surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Motor Lublin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.54 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 1.029 / defence 1.259 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.900 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.245. Motor Lublin's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Motor Lublin's last 16 games and Radomiak Radom's last 49.

Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 41% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 35%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.46 | Draw 4.09 | Radomiak Radom 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Motor Lublin's last 8 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Motor Lublin 50% (last 8 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).

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