Miedz Legnica 0-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Miedz Legnica at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Miedz Legnica host Widzew Łódź at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 8 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Miedz Legnica's home record at Stadion im. Orła Białego: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Miedz Legnica at 0.70 PPG versus Widzew Łódź's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Widzew Łódź 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Miedz Legnica trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Widzew Łódź trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Miedz Legnica 60% versus Widzew Łódź 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 47% | Widzew Łódź 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 1.13 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.822 / defence 1.272 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.772 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.006. Data: 30 Miedz Legnica games / 30 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 37% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 30%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Widzew Łódź 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Miedz Legnica as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Miedz Legnica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Miedz Legnica 60% | Widzew Łódź 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 37% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Miedz Legnica 1.13 / Widzew Łódź 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.822 / def 1.272 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.772 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Miedz Legnica (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Widzew Łódź xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź?
Miedz Legnica 0 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 37% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Miedz Legnica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Miedz Legnica 0W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Miedz Legnica's attack at 0.82x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Miedz Legnica's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Miedz Legnica Win
37%
2.70
33%
3.03
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.11
0.99
Widzew Łódź xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 0.99 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Miedz Legnica's recent record stands at 4W 10D 16L from 30 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 12L across 30 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Widzew Łódź by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Miedz Legnica heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Miedz Legnica have managed 3W 6D 6L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Miedz Legnica are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.13 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 games (0.73 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Widzew Łódź's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 1.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Miedz Legnica or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Miedz Legnica have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Miedz Legnica
0
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Miedz Legnica 0-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Miedz Legnica 60%, Widzew Łódź 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Miedz Legnica) and 33% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 40%; Miedz Legnica have failed to score in 33% of games; Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Miedz Legnica's recent matches and 33% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 33% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Miedz Legnica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Miedz Legnica 0-1 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 1.13 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.99 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Miedz Legnica fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.82 / defence 1.27 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 37% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 30%, with Miedz Legnica to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 47%, Widzew Łódź 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.