Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Legia Warszawa (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Legia Warszawa face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Zaglebie Lubin's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Legia Warszawa have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 9 meetings, with Zaglebie Lubin managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 54% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.38 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.049 / defence 0.857 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.969 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.173. Data: 35 Legia Warszawa games / 35 Zaglebie Lubin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 26%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.85. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.38 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.049 / def 0.857 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.969 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 45% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (9 meetings): Legia Warszawa 8W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.05x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.97x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.43
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.36
0.97
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.97 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 13D 9L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.46 PPG from 35 outings (14W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.46 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 8W 6D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.34 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 13W 13D 9L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.76 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 9, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 47%, Zaglebie Lubin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Legia Warszawa) and 47% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.38 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.97 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 26%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 40%, Zaglebie Lubin 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.49 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.