Legia Warszawa 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 47% as Legia Warszawa take on Wisla Plock.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 0.53 xG and Wisla Plock 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Wisla Plock attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.543 / away 0.765. Data: 0 Legia Warszawa games / 0 Wisla Plock games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 20% | Draw 47% | Wisla Plock 33%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 5.00 | Draw 2.13 | Wisla Plock 3.03. The draw (47%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 14% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.28. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 86% probability — total xG of 1.28 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Legia Warszawa's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 47% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 20% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.28 combined xG gives a 14% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 20% | Draw 47% | Wisla Plock 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 14% | BTTS 25% | xG Legia Warszawa 0.53 / Wisla Plock 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Wisla Plock attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.543 / away 0.765 • Poisson stance: Draw (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.53
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Wisla Plock xG
25%
BTTS
40%
Over 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
4%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 20% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 33% chance, and a 47% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 14%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.53. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.85x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 29.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.4%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 62% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
20%
5.02
47%
2.14
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
27.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.53
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
1.28
0.75
Wisla Plock xG
5.02
20%
Home win
2.14
47%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
37%
Over 1.5
2.70
63%
Under 1.5
1.59
14%
Over 2.5
7.14
86%
Under 2.5
1.16
4%
Over 3.5
25.00
96%
Under 3.5
1.04
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.00
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
59%
1.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27.9 | 20.8 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 29.3%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 0.53 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.75 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 1.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Pre-Season
Wisla Plock
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 0.53 xG and Wisla Plock 0.75 xG, a combined 1.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Wisla Plock attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 20% | Draw 47% | Wisla Plock 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 14%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 40% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.