Legia Warszawa 3-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–4 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 49% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Raków Częstochowa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.16 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.268 / defence 1.115 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.146 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.040. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Legia Warszawa games / 59 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 31% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 40%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Raków Częstochowa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 70% | Raków Częstochowa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 31% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.16 / Raków Częstochowa 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.268 / def 1.115 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.146 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Raków Częstochowa xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 31% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (3 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.27x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.15x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
31%
3.18
29%
3.46
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.49
1.33
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.33 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 59 games, going 28W 11D 20L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 2.20 PPG from 59 outings (39W 13D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 18W 4D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.97 points per game from 29 outings (17W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.88 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 28W 11D 20L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 39W 13D 7L in their last 59 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 48%, Raków Częstochowa 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Legia Warszawa) and 52% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 38%; Raków Częstochowa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 45% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Raków Częstochowa 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.16 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.33 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 / defence 1.11 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.15 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 31% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 40%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Raków Częstochowa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Legia Warszawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.