Legia Warszawa 2-3 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 3W 0D 3L across 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.83 PPG across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 1L. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 3W 1D 1L from 5 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.83 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 33% versus Raków Częstochowa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 33% | Raków Częstochowa 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.34 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.084 / defence 1.074 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.163 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.126. Data: 6 Legia Warszawa games / 6 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 38%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 33% | Raków Częstochowa 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.34 / Raków Częstochowa 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.084 / def 1.074 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.163 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Raków Częstochowa xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 3 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 36% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.08x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.16x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.86
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.75
1.41
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.41 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 0D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.83 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.83 scored and 1.50 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's attacking output running into Legia Warszawa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have Legia Warszawa or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 33%, Raków Częstochowa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Legia Warszawa) and 83% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 83% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Legia Warszawa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Legia Warszawa 2-3 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.34 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.41 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 38%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 33%, Raków Częstochowa 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.50 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.