Legia Warszawa 2-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Legia Warszawa's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Legia Warszawa lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 50% versus Lechia Gdansk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Lechia Gdansk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.70 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.145 / defence 0.829 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.085 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.204. Data: 49 Legia Warszawa games / 48 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 24%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Lechia Gdansk 4.17. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 40% | Lechia Gdansk 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.70 / Lechia Gdansk 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.145 / def 0.829 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.085 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lechia Gdansk xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 51% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.15x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (1.08x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.99
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.78
1.08
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
4%
22.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.08 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 20W 8D 20L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 20W 11D 17L from 48 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.48 for Lechia Gdansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (14W 2D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 7W 3D 13L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 8D 20L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 20W 11D 17L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.91 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 44%, Lechia Gdansk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Legia Warszawa) and 65% (Lechia Gdansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 48% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 65% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.70 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.08 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 24%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Lechia Gdansk 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.42 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.