Legia Warszawa 2-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season.
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Legia Warszawa's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Lechia Gdansk in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Legia Warszawa lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 42% versus Lechia Gdansk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 46% | Lechia Gdansk 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.56 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.101 / defence 1.141 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.717 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.096. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Legia Warszawa games / 26 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 20%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Lechia Gdansk 5.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 30% | Lechia Gdansk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.56 / Lechia Gdansk 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.101 / def 1.141 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.717 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 52% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.10x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (0.72x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.61
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.46
0.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
4%
23.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.90 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 10W 2D 14L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 12W 7D 7L from 26 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (7W 0D 6L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 4D 6L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 10W 2D 14L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.62 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 38%, Lechia Gdansk 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Legia Warszawa) and 31% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 31% of games; Lechia Gdansk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 38% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 31% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.56 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.90 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.10 / defence 1.14 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.72 / defence 1.39, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 20%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 46%, Lechia Gdansk 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Legia Warszawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.