Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin meet at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 4W 2D 0L at Stadion Energa Gdańsk — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Lechia Gdansk. A 0.70 PPG lead over Zaglebie Lubin (2.10 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 42% versus Zaglebie Lubin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 42% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.72 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.042 / defence 0.968 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.761 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.228. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Lechia Gdansk games / 12 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 19%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.72 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.042 / def 0.968 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.761 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Lechia Gdansk 2 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 56% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.76x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.99
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.62
0.91
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.91 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 7W 4D 1L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zaglebie Lubin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L).
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.33 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 6-2 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Lechia Gdansk) and 17% (Zaglebie Lubin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lechia Gdansk) and 50% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 50%; Zaglebie Lubin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 17% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.72 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.91 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.76 / defence 1.37, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 19%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 42%, Zaglebie Lubin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.