Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk host Motor Lublin at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 July 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Motor Lublin — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Motor Lublin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.45 xG and Motor Lublin 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Motor Lublin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.076. Data: 1 Lechia Gdansk games / 1 Motor Lublin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 43% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 24%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Motor Lublin 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jul 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 43% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.45 / Motor Lublin 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Motor Lublin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Motor Lublin xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 July 2024 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 43% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Motor Lublin (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.86) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.06
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.50
1.05
Motor Lublin xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.05 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Motor Lublin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lechia Gdansk by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Motor Lublin heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Motor Lublin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Motor Lublin specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
1
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Motor Lublin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Motor Lublin 2-3 Lechia Gdansk.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 0% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 0% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Motor Lublin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Lechia Gdansk 0-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.45 xG and Motor Lublin 1.05 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Motor Lublin outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Motor Lublin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 43% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 24%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 0%, Motor Lublin 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Motor Lublin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.