Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lechia Gdansk face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk plays host to Lechia Gdansk versus Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 home games (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Lech Poznan's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lech Poznan's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Lech Poznan arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Lech Poznan have the stronger record — 4 wins to Lechia Gdansk's 1, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended Lechia Gdansk 1–3 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lech Poznan have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 63% versus Lech Poznan 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 47% | Lech Poznan 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.85 xG and Lech Poznan 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.673 / defence 1.215 | Lech Poznan attack 0.967 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.117. Lechia Gdansk's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Lechia Gdansk's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lech Poznan's projected output up. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 19 games and Lech Poznan's last 53.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 23% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 46%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 4.29 | Draw 3.29 | Lech Poznan 2.16. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 9 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 44% (last 9 home games) | Lech Poznan 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 23% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.85 / Lech Poznan 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.673 / def 1.215 | Lech Poznan attack 0.967 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 23% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.67x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (0.97x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 19 games and Lech Poznan's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
23%
4.29
30%
3.29
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.17
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
15.94
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 15.0 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.31 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 3W 6D 10L from 19 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Lech Poznan, meanwhile, have gone 13W 2D 4L across 19 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lechia Gdansk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 2W 2D 5L from their last 9 home games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lech Poznan's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across their last 9 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.95 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 13W 2D 4L in their last 19 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 0.89 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 5-0 Lechia Gdansk on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
0
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Lech Poznan 1-3 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 44%, Lech Poznan 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Lechia Gdansk and 33% for Lech Poznan.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 56%; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 33% of games; Lech Poznan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 33% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 33% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 67% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Lech Poznan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Lech Poznan 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.85 xG and Lech Poznan 1.31 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lech Poznan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.67 / defence 1.22 against Lech Poznan attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 23% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 46%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 47%, Lech Poznan 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.