Korona Kielce 4-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Korona Kielce face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Suzuki Arena to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Friday 19 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.20 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Korona Kielce edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Korona Kielce 1–1 Radomiak Radom — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 58% versus Radomiak Radom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 44% | Radomiak Radom 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.85 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.027 / defence 1.167 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.073 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.079. Radomiak Radom's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Korona Kielce's projected output up. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 62 games and Radomiak Radom's last 62.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.12 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 3.86. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Korona Kielce's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 70% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Korona Kielce 1.85 / Radomiak Radom 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.027 / def 1.167 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.073 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce 4 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 47% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.03) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.07x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 62 games and Radomiak Radom's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.70
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
3.20
1.35
Radomiak Radom xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
4%
24.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.35 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 20D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.27 PPG from 62 outings (21W 16D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.27 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 16W 20D 26L in their last 62 games (1.10 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 16D 25L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.48 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won Korona Kielce 4-0 Radomiak Radom on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Korona Kielce 0-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 58%, Radomiak Radom 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Korona Kielce) and 52% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 42% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 52% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 71% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Korona Kielce run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Radomiak Radom 4-0 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.85 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.35 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 47% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Radomiak Radom 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.10 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.