Korona Kielce 3-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Suzuki Arena to take on Korona Kielce. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 4D 3L at Suzuki Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Korona Kielce's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Korona Kielce, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Korona Kielce in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 59% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 44% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.32 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.018 / defence 1.021 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.915 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.219. Data: 54 Korona Kielce games / 55 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 29%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Legia Warszawa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 60% | Legia Warszawa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Korona Kielce 1.32 / Legia Warszawa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.018 / def 1.021 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.915 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Korona Kielce 3 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 38% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 2W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.02) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.08
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.46
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.14 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Korona Kielce come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 17D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.87 PPG from 54 outings (29W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Korona Kielce's home form reads 11W 7D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.50 points per game from 26 outings (11W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.61 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 29W 14D 11L in their last 54 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.54 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
From 9 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 58%, Legia Warszawa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Korona Kielce) and 42% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 35%; Legia Warszawa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 38% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 42% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa finished level at 3-3 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.32 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 29%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.