Korona Kielce 1-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Korona Kielce host Lechia Gdansk at Suzuki Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Korona Kielce — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's home record at Suzuki Arena: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lechia Gdansk are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Korona Kielce register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Lechia Gdansk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Korona Kielce, 0 for Lechia Gdansk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Korona Kielce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Korona Kielce trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 65% versus Lechia Gdansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 45% | Lechia Gdansk 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.15 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / defence 1.145 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.010 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.132. Data: 20 Korona Kielce games / 54 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 31% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 39%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Lechia Gdansk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 67% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 31% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Korona Kielce 1.15 / Lechia Gdansk 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / def 1.145 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.010 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lechia Gdansk xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Korona Kielce 1 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 31% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (1 meetings): Korona Kielce 1W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Korona Kielce's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.29
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.46
1.31
Lechia Gdansk xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.31 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 4W 5D 11L from 20 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 10L across 20 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Korona Kielce on 0.85 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Lechia Gdansk's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 0.89 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Korona Kielce won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk?
From 6 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Korona Kielce at 67%, Lechia Gdansk at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Korona Kielce and 78% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Korona Kielce's games and 78% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Korona Kielce's matches and 78% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Korona Kielce and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.15 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.31 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 31% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 39%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 45%, Lechia Gdansk 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 0.85 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.