Jagiellonia 2-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Chorten Arena to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Chorten Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chorten Arena.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 2.30 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jagiellonia, 3 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 4–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 65% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 71% | Raków Częstochowa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.02 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.235 / defence 0.997 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.902 / defence 0.558. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.185. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.558 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Jagiellonia games / 48 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 34% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 36%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Raków Częstochowa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Raków Częstochowa 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 34% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Jagiellonia 1.02 / Raków Częstochowa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.235 / def 0.997 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.902 / def 0.558 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Jagiellonia 2 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 34% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (6 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.32
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.08
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.07 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 28W 10D 10L from 48 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 12L across 48 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.96 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 17W 4D 3L from 24 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.48 scored and 0.90 conceded. Jagiellonia's scoring rate against Raków Częstochowa's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 28W 10D 10L in their last 48 games (1.96 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 23W 13D 12L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.29 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 58%, Raków Częstochowa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Jagiellonia) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jagiellonia's games and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.02 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.24 / defence 1.00 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.90 / defence 0.56, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 34% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 36%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 71%, Raków Częstochowa 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.96 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.