Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jagiellonia face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 2D 4L at Chorten Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Chorten Arena this season.
Radomiak Radom have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Jagiellonia, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Radomiak Radom — a 4D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 64% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 64% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.60 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.883 / defence 0.969 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.714 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 39 Jagiellonia games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 17%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 5.88. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Jagiellonia 1.60 / Radomiak Radom 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.883 / def 0.969 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.714 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Radomiak Radom xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 51% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Jagiellonia 5W | Draws 4 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.71x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.12
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.49
0.89
Radomiak Radom xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
28.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.89 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 11D 10L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.23 PPG from 39 outings (12W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 10W 3D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (2W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.33 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 18W 11D 10L in their last 39 games (1.67 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.74 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 63%, Radomiak Radom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Jagiellonia and 63% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jagiellonia's games and 63% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Jagiellonia's matches and 63% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.