Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 5W 1D 4L at Chorten Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Radomiak Radom have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Jagiellonia, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Radomiak Radom — a 4D 1W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 63% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 63% | Radomiak Radom 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.88 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.848 / defence 1.121 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.895 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Jagiellonia games / 47 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 49% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 24%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 4.17. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 50% | Radomiak Radom 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights