Gornik Zabrze 4-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Wisla Plock travel to Arena Zabrze to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 1D 4L from 8 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Zabrze, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Zabrze. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.44. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 0W 0D 5L from 5 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gornik Zabrze 1.25 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.11 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Wisla Plock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 50% | Wisla Plock 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.46 xG and Wisla Plock 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.765 / defence 1.027 | Wisla Plock attack 0.840 / defence 1.653. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.202. Gornik Zabrze's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.653 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Gornik Zabrze games / 9 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 47% | Draw 26% | Wisla Plock 27%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Wisla Plock 3.70. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 25% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Zabrze • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 47% | Draw 26% | Wisla Plock 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.46 / Wisla Plock 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.765 / def 1.027 | Wisla Plock attack 0.840 / def 1.653 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Arena Zabrze.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Gornik Zabrze 4 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Arena Zabrze.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 47% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (0.77) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.81
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.50
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
16.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.04 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 3W 1D 4L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 4L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.25 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.88 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Wisla Plock in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Wisla Plock away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.50 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 25%, Wisla Plock 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Gornik Zabrze) and 75% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 75% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 75% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Wisla Plock 4-2 at Arena Zabrze, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.46 xG and Wisla Plock 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Wisla Plock attack 0.84 / defence 1.65, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 47% | Draw 26% | Wisla Plock 27%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 50%, Wisla Plock 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.25 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.