Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gornik Zabrze (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gornik Zabrze face Wisla Plock.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Wisla Plock travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 1 for Wisla Plock and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 54% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 51% | Wisla Plock 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.00 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.133 / defence 1.026 | Wisla Plock attack 0.868 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 44 Gornik Zabrze games / 43 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 19%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 5.26. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Wisla Plock 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.00 / Wisla Plock 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.133 / def 1.026 | Wisla Plock attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 53% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 3W | Draws 2 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.13) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.65
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.19
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
3%
38.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.19 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 23W 9D 11L from 43 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 16L across 43 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gornik Zabrze by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Plock heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 13W 1D 6L from 20 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Wisla Plock away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.00 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 60%, Wisla Plock 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Gornik Zabrze) and 50% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 65% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 50% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.