Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gornik Zabrze face Stal Mielec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stal Mielec travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gornik Zabrze at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Stal Mielec have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.20 PPG versus Stal Mielec's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 2 for Stal Mielec and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 May 2024, ended Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Stal Mielec — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 54% versus Stal Mielec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 48% | Stal Mielec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.32 xG and Stal Mielec 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.925 / defence 0.875 | Stal Mielec attack 0.824 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.171. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 45 games and Stal Mielec's last 44.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 24%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.09 | Draw 3.54 | Stal Mielec 4.20. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 50% (last 10 home games) | Stal Mielec 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.32 / Stal Mielec 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.925 / def 0.875 | Stal Mielec attack 0.824 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Stal Mielec xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 12) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 48% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.93x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 45 games and Stal Mielec's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.54
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.17
0.84
Stal Mielec xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.84 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 18W 11D 15L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Stal Mielec's form line: 14W 12D 18L from 44 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.48 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 21 home games (11W 6D 4L).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 5D 13L from their last 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.14 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Stal Mielec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Stal Mielec away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.86 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 22 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2025: Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 43%, Stal Mielec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gornik Zabrze) and 48% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 52% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 48% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 62% of Stal Mielec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Stal Mielec 3-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.32 xG and Stal Mielec 0.84 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Stal Mielec attack 0.82 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 24%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 48%, Stal Mielec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.