Gornik Zabrze 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024, 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.50 PPG versus Raków Częstochowa's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Gornik Zabrze hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Raków Częstochowa, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The historical record gives Gornik Zabrze a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 55% versus Raków Częstochowa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.032 / defence 0.852 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.981 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.109. Data: 38 Gornik Zabrze games / 38 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 39% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 28%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Raków Częstochowa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 39% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.14 / Raków Częstochowa 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.032 / def 0.852 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.981 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 39% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (6 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 4W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.03x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
39%
2.57
33%
2.99
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.07
0.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.93 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 38 games, going 17W 9D 12L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (16W 11D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.58 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 10W 5D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.50 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 17W 9D 12L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.94 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 44%, Raków Częstochowa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Gornik Zabrze) and 39% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 61% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 39% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gornik Zabrze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 5, as Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 39% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 28%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.58 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.